Evaluating the effectiveness of lockdowns and restrictions during SARS-CoV-2 variant waves in the Canadian province of Nova Scotia.

Introduction: After the initial onset of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the government of Canada and provincial health authorities imposed restrictive policies to limit virus transmission and mitigate disease burden. In this study, the pandemic implications in the Canadian province of Nova Scotia (NS) were evaluated as a function of the movement of people and governmental restrictions during successive SARS-CoV-2 variant waves (i.e., Alpha through Omicron). Methods: Publicly available data obtained from community mobility reports (Google), the Bank of Canada Stringency Index, the "COVID-19 Tracker" service, including cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and vaccines, population mobility trends, and governmental response data were used to relate the effectiveness of policies in controlling movement and containing multiple waves of SARS-CoV-2. Results: Our results indicate that the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic inflicted low burden in NS in the initial 2 years of the pandemic. In this period, we identified reduced mobility patterns in the population. We also observed a negative correlation between public transport (-0.78), workplace (-0.69), retail and recreation (-0.68) and governmental restrictions, indicating a tight governmental control of these movement patterns. During the initial 2 years, governmental restrictions were high and the movement of people low, characterizing a 'seek-and-destroy' approach. Following this phase, the highly transmissible Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant began circulating in NS at the end of the second year, leading to increased cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. During this Omicron period, unsustainable governmental restrictions and waning public adherence led to increased population mobility, despite increased transmissibility (26.41-fold increase) and lethality (9.62-fold increase) of the novel variant. Discussion: These findings suggest that the low initial burden caused by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic was likely a result of enhanced restrictions to contain the movement of people and consequently, the spread of the disease. Easing public health restrictions (as measured by a decline in the BOC index) during periods of high transmissibility of circulating COVID-19 variants contributed to community spread, despite high levels of immunization in NS.

Effect of unmanned aerial vehicle (drone) delivery on blood product delivery time and wastage in Rwanda: a retrospective, cross-sectional study and time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: The accessibility of blood and blood products remains challenging in many countries because of the complex supply chain of short lifetime products, timely access, and demand fluctuation at the hospital level. In an effort to improve availability and delivery times, Rwanda launched the use of drones to deliver blood products to remote health facilities. We evaluated the effect of this intervention on blood product delivery times and wastage. METHODS: We studied data from 20 health facilities between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2019, in Rwanda. First, we did a cross-sectional comparison of data on emergency delivery times from the drone operator collected between March 17, 2017, and Dec 31, 2019, with two sources of estimated driving times (Regional Centre for Blood Transfusion estimates and Google Maps). Second, we used interrupted time series analysis and monthly administrative data to assess changes in blood product expirations after the commencement of drone deliveries. FINDINGS: Between March 17, 2017, and Dec 31, 2019, 12 733 blood product orders were delivered by drones. 5517 (43%) of 12 733 were emergency orders. The mean drone delivery time was 49·6 min (95% CI 49·1 to 50·2), which was 79 min faster than existing road delivery methods based on estimated driving times (p<0·0001) and 98 min faster based on Google Maps estimates (p<0·0001). The decrease in mean delivery time ranged from 3 min to 211 min depending on the distance to the facility and road quality. We also found a decrease of 7·1 blood unit expirations per month after the start of drone delivery (95% CI -11·8 to -2·4), which translated to a 67% reduction at 12 months. INTERPRETATION: We found that drone delivery led to faster delivery times and less blood component wastage in health facilities. Future studies should investigate if these improvements are cost-effective, and whether drone delivery might be effective for other pharmaceutical and health supplies that cannot be easily stored at remote facilities. FUNDING: Canadian Institutes for Health Research.

A pooled testing strategy for identifying SARS-CoV-2 at low prevalence.

Suppressing infections of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) will probably require the rapid identification and isolation of individuals infected with the virus on an ongoing basis. Reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests are accurate but costly, which makes the regular testing of every individual expensive. These costs are a challenge for all countries around the world, but particularly for low-to-middle-income countries. Cost reductions can be achieved by pooling (or combining) subsamples and testing them in groups1-7. A balance must be struck between increasing the group size and retaining test sensitivity, as sample dilution increases the likelihood of false-negative test results for individuals with a low viral load in the sampled region at the time of the test8. Similarly, minimizing the number of tests to reduce costs must be balanced against minimizing the time that testing takes, to reduce the spread of the infection. Here we propose an algorithm for pooling subsamples based on the geometry of a hypercube that, at low prevalence, accurately identifies individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 in a small number of tests and few rounds of testing. We discuss the optimal group size and explain why, given the highly infectious nature of the disease, largely parallel searches are preferred. We report proof-of-concept experiments in which a positive subsample was detected even when diluted 100-fold with negative subsamples (compared with 30-48-fold dilutions described in previous studies9-11). We quantify the loss of sensitivity due to dilution and discuss how it may be mitigated by the frequent re-testing of groups, for example. With the use of these methods, the cost of mass testing could be reduced by a large factor. At low prevalence, the costs decrease in rough proportion to the prevalence. Field trials of our approach are under way in Rwanda and South Africa. The use of group testing on a massive scale to monitor infection rates closely and continually in a population, along with the rapid and effective isolation of people with SARS-CoV-2 infections, provides a promising pathway towards the long-term control of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

Genomic diversity analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes in Rwanda (preprint)

COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) is an emerging pneumonia-like respiratory disease of humans and is recently spreading across the globe. To analyze the genome sequence of SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2) isolated from Rwanda with other viral strains from African countries. We downloaded 75 genomes sequences of clinical SARS-CoV-2 from the GISAID (global initiative on sharing all influenza data) database and we comprehensively analyzed these SARS-CoV-2 genomes sequences alongside with Wuhan SARS-CoV-2 sequences as the reference strains. We analyzed 75 genomes sequences of SARS-CoV-2 isolated in different African countries including 10 samples of SARS-CoV-2 isolated in Rwanda between July and August 2020. The phylogenetic analysis of the genome sequence of SARS-CoV-2 revealed a strong identity with reference strains between 90-95%. We identified a missense mutation in four proteins including orf1ab polyprotein, NSP2, 2'-O-ribose methyltransferase and orf1a polyprotein. The most common changes in the base are C > T. We also found that all clinically SARS-CoV-2 isolated from Rwanda had genomes belonging to clade G and lineage B.1. Tracking the genetic evolution of SARS-CoV-2 over time is important to understand viral evolution pathogenesis. These findings may help to implement public health measures in curbing COVID-19 in Rwanda.